Scenario building and trends analysis for the WASH sector
Published on: 19/08/2011
"Nothing is more obvious than the unpredictability of the future" [Ratcliff, 2002]. And yet, looking ahead at possible futures, however unpredictable they are, can help us reflect on our current ways of working. In the process of scanning trends and building possible scenarios we can identify, evaluate and take explicit account of a whole range of uncertain factors that might either support or derail our strategies and plans.
Scenario building is a team exercise that can help us to come to terms with uncertainty and risk. Scenarios can be used to identify the most uncertain and most important factors that are outside our direct control. In the process of developing scenarios, we have to think imaginatively and confront our assumptions. While we cannot predict the future, we can become more aware of opportunities, risks and lessons. Learning through broadening our horizons can help us prepare for, and adapt to change.
IRC has been working on scenario building and trends analysis for the WASH (Water Sanitation and Hygiene) sector, which can be found here. For the SWITCH project on integrated urban water management, we've produced a briefing note (available below) that gives an introduction to doing scenario planning as part of a multi stakeholder process for change. (by Carmen)
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